Accuracy Analysis Of The Short-Term (11-Year) National Health Expenditure Projections

On July 18, 2016, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) published this accuracy analysis of the short-term national health expenditure (NHE) projections for 1997-2014. This paper updates and examines the accuracy of the NHE projections by comparing each set of those projections from 1997 through 2014 (representing a total of 17 distinct projection sets) to the then-current estimates of historical NHE. The report includes analysis of the projection accuracy for growth in total NHE, personal health care (PHC) spending, as well as spending in three of the major health care sectors (hospitals, physicians and clinical . . .