Medicare Spending Projected To Continue Rising Through 2034; Medicaid & Private Insurance Growth To Slow

National health expenditure projections from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Office of the Actuary show Medicare spending continuing to grow through 2034, while Medicaid spending is projected to fluctuate and private health insurance (PHI) spending growth is expected to slow. The projections reflect demographic trends as well as the expected effects of several provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

Medicare spending is projected to reach $1.2 trillion in 2025, reflecting 7.7% growth, similar to the 7.8% increase recorded in 2024. Growth is projected to accelerate to 9.2% in 2026, driven . . .