An algorithm that combines data from a simple blood test for plasma P-tau levels and APOE genotyping, plus the results of brief memory tests can predict with 90% accuracy whether an individual will develop Alzheimer’s disease dementia within four years. The clinical predictions by memory clinic physicians had significantly lower accuracy, at about 71% over four years. Better prediction of Alzheimer’s disease risk among cognitively normal individuals could aid recruitment for clinical trials testing medications to prevent cognitive impairment and progression to Alzheimer’s disease.

The algorithm was developed using data collected from 340 people with subjective . . .

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