ACA Individual Market Enrollment Is Estimated To Drop 17%–26% In 2026 Following Expiration Of Enhanced Premium Tax Credits

Affordable Care Act (ACA) individual market enrollment for 2026 is estimated to decline between 17% and 26% nationally, on average, compared to 2025, according to a recent analysis, reflecting the impact of expiring federal premium subsidies, rising consumer costs, and other regulatory changes in 2026 that reduced eligibility for premium subsidies.

The decline follows the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at the end of 2025. These subsidies, originally established under the American Rescue Plan Act and extended through the Inflation Reduction Act, had capped Marketplace premiums at 8.5% of income and enabled many individuals to access $0 premium . . .